An uncertainty quantification and aggregation framework for system performance assessment in industrial maintenance

The exponential increase in technological complexity of modern engineering systems necessitates rigorous and accurate maintenance planning to determine optimum equipment availability and turnaround time whilst allowing for overruns and unforeseen costs. Quality and availability of quantitative data, as well as qualitative expert opinion and experience expose uncertainties that can result in under or over estimation of the above factors. Uncertainty quantification in complex engineering systems should consider inter-connected components and associated processes from a combination of quantitative and qualitative (compound) perspectives. This paper presents a framework to quantify and aggregate compound uncertainties and to be assessed against a predetermined acceptable level of uncertainty. This will provide maintenance planners with a confident, comprehensive view of parameters surrounding the above factors to improve decision making capabilities. The framework was validated by assessing individual and compound uncertainties in a bespoke heat exchanger test rig comprised of subsystem modules interact in a non-linear manner, as well as subjective opinions and actions of operators. The results demonstrate the framework’s ability to effectively quantify these factors with an indication of their impact on the system. Future work will include further validation with more complex case studies and development of methods to forecast the quantified uncertainty through the in-service phase of an asset’s life cycle.

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